This review summarises the current state of aerospace industries in the BRIC countries and provides a pin-hole peep into the future for the global aerospace industry.
Why Aerospace Industry?
 |
| Airbus A380 Production (Credit: Airbus / Masclet) |
When nations choose to display their national pride in technological advancement, aerospace industry always comes out top of the list. Try recalling the launch of the Russian Sputnik into the space, the ambitious America’s Mission to the Moon and the creation of the Pan-European consortium Airbus. Momentous events such as these have always been seen as testaments of pride and global leadership for nations. Why has the aerospace industry always been used as the trophy of emerging nationhood and global dominance? My guess is that aerospace technologies have remained as mystifying to nations as they were more than a century ago since the first controlled flight over Kitty Hawk in 1903. It is one of the ultimate technological frontiers, among others, that provide technological spill over to other industries, such as advanced materials. Moreover, products of aerospace technologies are generally more visible to other due to its use in the airline industry or defence. Try comparing Paris or Farnborough Air Shows with Biotechnica (Europe’s most important exhibition for biotechnology, haven’t heard of it, right?). These are probably some good reasons that drive emerging nations across the world in diverting billions of dollars into this politically contested and profit-opaque industry from many other possibly more lucrative and essential industries like agriculture and energy.
The BRIC Countries’ Aerospace Technological Development
The BRIC countries that consist of Brazil, Russia, India and China (therefore the acronym BRIC) are the economical growth magnets for global imports and products, undeniably the engines of global economy. Logically, none of these countries have shown desire to leave their domestic markets for exploitation by the foreign players. Be it washing machines, automobiles or consumer products, these nations aim have a slide of their own market and create their own domestic players that could hopefully one day compete with the foreign 1st tier global incumbents and perhaps even in their own tufts in the future. That includes the aerospace industry. Interestingly, the aerospace industries of the BRIC countries have shown remarkable technological achievement relative to other industries. For example, the highly successful Brazilian Embraer and Russian Tupolev range of commercial regional jets and Chinese J-10 and J-20 stealth fighters. This is due to a number of pragmatic and critical reasons. First, the aerospace industry is always somehow associated with national defence. All aircrafts can be militarised, even for simple propeller driven aircrafts like the Cessna or Beechcraft. Countries develop their aerospace industries to support national defence. With the exception of Brazil, all BRIC nations have been latecomers in the commercial aircraft industry and have predominantly focused on military aircrafts.
Among the BRIC nations, Russia has the longest aerospace experience and technological capability. It had a global commercial aircraft industry that mainly served the Warsaw Pact nations and allies. In fact, Russia introduced in 1956 the world’s first operational commercial jet, Tupolev Tu-104, which unfortunately wasn’t very popular (only 200 built). Subsequent Russian aircrafts experienced limited market success mainly due to political market constraints. Even after the end of the Cold War, Russian commercial aircrafts were not globally competitive due to the lack of development funding, technological inferiority and western safety standard. It is only recently that Russia returned to take on the global commercial jet market with the MS-21 and SSJ 100 regional jets, albeit with very strong technological assistance from private western aerospace suppliers.
 |
| Sukhoi SuperJet 100 (Credit: Businessweek) |
China recognised the strategic and immediate need to have its own aerospace industry after the defeat of the Chinese nationalist government in 1949. After several decades of technological learning through licensed production, reverse-engineering, technological cooperation and indigenous development, the Chinese aerospace industry is ready to expand its global aerospace footprint today. In fact, China has once attempted in the 1980s to enter the commercial aircraft market with the Y-10 commercial jet, which was eventually abandoned due to various techno-political reasons. Since then, China diverted its effort entirely towards military aircrafts. It is only very recently that China staged its prominent comeback with the COMAC C919 and ARJ21 regional commercial jets. Like the Russian, Chinese aircraft company, COMAC, fully exploited the force of globalisation by getting major western aerospace suppliers onboard, thereby providing valuable technologies in the Chinese aircrafts.
 |
| ARJ21 (Credit: COMAC) |
 |
| C919 (Credit: COMAC) |
India’s aerospace industry is the least developed among the BRIC nations. It is still at its infancy stage of development and has yet to produce any truly successful aerospace product in both its domestic and the global markets. Some notable products are the Indian Light Combat Aircraft and Light Combat Helicopters, which experienced severe development schedule and cost overrun, even with foreign technical experience from the Europeans and Russians. Commercial aircraft designed and made in India will be highly unlikely in the next two decades. Even so, aerospace technological development in India will certainly benefit from the imminent technological transfer packages that are associated to Indian’s future purchases of military aircrafts from the US, Europe and Russia.
Brazil’s aerospace development is the most remarkable among the BRIC nations. Brazil can boast its aviation heritage with some of the pre-eminent historical aviation pioneers such as Alberto Santos-Dumont, who invented the world’s first hybrid-lift aircraft. Nevertheless, the development of Brazilian post-war aerospace industry would not have been possible with the help of the Americans and Europeans. After several decades of foreign technological aid and indigenous effort, Brazil prides itself as the world’s fourth largest commercial jet exporter, among the big players like Boeing, Airbus and Bombardier.
In contrast to the aircraft segment of the aerospace industry, it is interesting to note all BRIC countries already possess operational space systems such as satellite and space launch vehicles (yes, rockets!). Moreover, China, India and Russia have operational ballistic missiles (intercontinental or tactical ballistic missiles). What can we really derive from this is that the technological evolution and advancement in these countries is really simply dependent on the national interest and resource prioritisation and allocation.
The Achilles’ heel of BRIC aircraft industries is the lack of competitive system technologies such as engines, sensors and avionics. That’s why all major aircraft programs in the BRIC nations are still relying heavily on western system suppliers. This industrial weakness will certainly change in the near future especially in Russia and China. Brazil will likely to continue to rely on its trusted western suppliers from the US, Canada and Europe, while focusing only in system integration and sales.
What’s on the horizon and the Implications for the Incumbents?
One thing for sure, the global aerospace competition will intensify. Incumbent aerospace players such as Boeing and Airbus can no longer to operate in the same way as they had in the past decades. The line between partner and competitor will diminish. Mainly due to globalising western aerospace suppliers, technological barriers and edges will become more temporal and opaque. More cooperation among aerospace players is expected and a new form of industrial competence, cooperative competence, will be in great demand and developed. Environmental friendliness, passenger flying experience and lifecycle cost (not just aircraft price) will be the key competition differentiators. The non-technological factors such as on-time delivery, airport ecosystem compatibility and after-sales support excellence will play greater part in the product differentiation among players.
On the military front, stealth and unmanned aircrafts will become the indispensible platforms of the air battlefield in all global theatres. Future Systems-of-Systems war-fighting concept will see greater integration of aircrafts into the gaining greater battlefield awareness (C4ISR) and more responsive target allocation. For sure, the world’s air forces will decline in size but increase in terms of asset value due to exponential increase in price of military jets and support complexity. There will be greater civilian-military integration as modern aircrafts will no longer be serviceable by drafted airmen, who will need greater expert support from civilian contractors.
 |
| Figure: Manned-Unmanned Aircraft Teaming (Credit: Boeing) |
In conclusion, the aerospace industry will become more complex and more systemic in nature. It will require a whole new range of disciplines and expertises that go beyond traditional aerospace fields. It will certainly remain one of the key growth and most dynamic industries in the coming decades.
Keine Kommentare:
Kommentar veröffentlichen